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Forex Flash: EUR up, GBP down based on IMM and fundamentals – UBS

According to Research Analyst Geoffrey Yu at UBS, “We continue to see the current market as one purely driven by positioning, though policymaker opinions are catalysts for reversals of some short-term extremes, either for longs or shorts. In addition, we note the extremes sometimes need not only be measured by the size of the positions, but also the speed at which they were accumulated.”

The way the EUR and GBP have behaved last week are good examples. IMM figures just released on Friday show how markets were positioned heading into the policy meetings/statements on Thursday by Messrs King, Carney and Draghi. Sterling shorts were accumulated extremely quickly in January, and even our own flow data showed that selling in the GBP/USD by certain client groups was the strongest (on a weekly basis) in several years.

“For the EUR, the pace of the unwinding of entrenched shorts was even more aggressive. For both currencies, the absolute size of positions in shorts, according to the IMM, remain flat at best, however in essence the market needed to slow down and Draghi's smallest inkling of concerns for the pace of appreciation was enough to achieve this.” Yu adds. Nonetheless, in the short term, the direction of positioning accumulation remains quite clear, and GBP downside and EUR upside are still dominant on a directional basis, not to mention with some fundamental justification as well.

Forex: USD/CHF bounces from 0.9157 low, eyes 0.9200

The USD/CHF was trading sideways at 0.9170/0.9200 range since failing to breach the 0.9200 mark on Thursday. In today's European session, the pair found reason to fall from its highs and post a daily low at 0.9157 before bouncing back for what looks like a new attempt at 0.9200.
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Forex Flash: New Zealand strategy profile – Westpac

According to the Westpac Strategy Team, “The NZD/USD uptrend to 0.8570 next is alive as long as the 0.8250 level is not breached. That being said, 0.8300 is key because a break below that would probably send it towards 0.8100.”
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