Canada: Job market to cool – TDS

Canada is scheduled to release important employment and trade data at 13:30 GMT. Analysts at TD Securities preview the numbers expected as the USD/CAD pair trades at 1.340.

Key quotes

“TD looks for the Labour Force Survey to reveal job growth of 12k in February, in line with the market consensus but slightly below the 6m trend of 20k.”

“Muted job growth should allow the unemployment rate to rise to 5.6% (from an unrounded 5.54%) while we see wage growth cooling to 3.9% y/y owing to a combination of base-effects and some moderation from the 1.0% m/m increase in January.”

“International trade for January will round out the data calendar; TD looks for the deficit to widen to $900m (market: -$780m) from a $370m deficit, owing to a pullback in energy exports.”