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Forex Flash: NZD/JPY dips to be capped by 76.90; launch to 82.00 expected - BNZ

Regardless of the G7’s view, Mike Jones, currency strategist at Bank of New Zealand, expect "the tailwinds under the NZD/JPY to remain in place as NZ-JP interest rate differentials have already widened sharply" he says.

He also expects "this trend to continue as the RBNZ stands guard against a frothy housing market (reaffirmed by yesterday’s REINZ data) and the Bank of Japan adopts an even more dovish stance under its new Governorship."

Mr. Jones suggests that dips in the NZD/JPY "will be limited to support at 76.90 in our view, with a year-end forecast of 82.00."

Market ahead of itself discounting RBA cuts?

The chatter in the market is that after the Westpac consumer confidence, which showed a reading of 7.7% in February vs a 0.6% in January, sending the index to its highest since Dec 2010, the RBA will prolonge for longer its 'wait and see mode' as evidence mounts that the health of a core area of the economy like consumer sentiment, an indicator usually used to measure spending, is improving, even after the RBA left rates steady earlier this month.
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Forex: EUR/USD quiet around 1.3450

EUR/USD is currently dealing with the 1.3450, little moved since late London session, when SNB chairman comments sparkled the single currency to above the 1.3400 handle coming from daily lows at 1.3366, which finally topped for the day at 1.3475 by early NY session, helped on risk appetite. The pair has broken above a neckline around the 1.3420 level, leaving behing a reversed head and shoulders pattern visible up to the 1H chart now targeting the 1.3500 round while above the mentioned neck line.
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