EURO GAINS 3-YEAR HIGH
The EUR/USD continued the positive trend after the release of the ECB meeting minutes. The trigger for the bulls to push the quotes higher came from the positive forecast for the economy of the monetary union. At the same time, monetary policy settings remained unchanged with the asset purchasing program of 30 billion euro per month set to last until September. Further support for the euro came from the positive macro data on the German business climate calculated by the Ifo, according to which, the index increased to 117.6 which is 0.5 more than forecasted. Volatility levels for the pair are likely to remain high tomorrow due to the release of the important GDP report for the US. A strong pace of economic expansion in the world’s largest economy may see a price rollback for the EUR/USD.
The USD/CAD resumed falling today after the publication of controversial macro data on retail sales. The indicator increased by only 0.2% in November which is 0.5% less than expected, but core retail sales that exclude car sales has grown sharply to 1.6% which is twice more than the average expectation.
The USD/JPY keeps falling on the background of the weakening US dollar. Today the attention of traders will be turned to the national core CPI that will be released at 23:30 GMT and the monetary policy meeting minutes of the Bank of Japan at 23:50 GMT.
Volatility is also expected for the GBP/USD during the last session of the week as the preliminary report on GDP growth in the UK for the fourth quarter is due for release.
The EUR/USD price was able to gain a foothold above the important 1.2400 level and is testing the psychologically important 1.2500 mark. After a strong increase during the past few days, we do not rule out a descending correction happening soon with the first target at 1.2400. The RSI on the 15-minute chart is in the overbought territory which is a signal of a possible price rollback.
The USD/CAD resumed negative dynamics after the recent correction to the SMA100 on the 15-minute chart. The immediate objective in case of the price continuing to fall will be 1.2235. On the other hand, if quotes break through the 1.2365 level, then they may keep correcting upwards to 1.2450.
The USD/JPY has continued moving in the negative trend and may soon reach the 108.50 support. We do not exclude a rebound after testing this important level and growth in this case may reach 109.60 and 103.30. The next goals in case of breaking through 108.50 will be 107.00 and 106.60.